Cocktails and Movies: Flicks to Pick This Weekend

BY TIM BARLEY AND MIKE REYES

Cocktails and Movies presents this week’s “Flicks to Pick” for the first weekend in May 2013. Or, what we think you should watch after cocktails this weekend. Like there is any other movie coming out this weekend that will come close to Iron Man 3. Still, maybe your girlfriend doesn’t like superhero movies (and then ask yourself, WHY is she your girlfriend then?), maybe you’re going to get sucked into something else…

First though, here’s what happened LAST weekend:

Last week’s Top Ten at the Box Office:

1. Pain and Gain – $20.2 million

2. Oblivion – $17.8 million

3. “42” – $10.6 million

4. The Big Wedding – $7.5 million

5. The Croods – $6.7 million

6. GI Joe: Retaliation – $3.7 million

7. Scary Movie 5 – $3.4 million

8. Olympus Has Fallen – $2.8 million

9. The Place Beyond the Pines – $2.7 million

10. Jurassic Park 3D – $2.3 million

Cocktails and Movies Oblivion2013PosterLooking at last weekend, we were spot on with our calls for the most part, with “Oblivion” holding onto second place and our projection for it to earn $17 million was right on the nose, with a predictable drop from it’s opening week numbers. What we were was a bit optimistic for Dwayne Johnson and Mark Walhberg, expecting more people to go see “Pain & Gain,” which came in $9 million lower than we were estimating. And the BIG loser was “The Big Wedding,” earning only $2800 per screen average, which is just awful for a big cast movie remake of a French movie but still better than our predicted sixth place finish.

And now, for this weekend.

New releases for the weekend of May 3rd – May 5th:

cocktails and movies iron man 3 posterIron Man 3 (rated PG-13) Distributor: Paramount/Walt Disney/Marvel Director: Shane Black, Starring: Robert Downey, Jr., Gwenyth Paltrow, Don Cheadle, Sir Ben Kingsley, Guy Pearce

The third installment of the “Iron Man” franchise, “Iron Man 3” brings a major change a the helm as previous RDJ collaborator Shane Black (“Lethal Weapons,” “Kiss, Kiss, Bang, Bang”) takes over and has directed what is expected to be a blockbuster of epic proportions. It has already done $307 million overseas. First weekend box office expectations are running in the $200 – $250 million range, and has some people conjecturing whether it will top “Avengers” box office ($1.5 billion U.S. BO). The film returns us back to the world of Tony Stark, having just been part of the Avengers team with all of its aliens, Norse gods, alternate dimensions and other major superheroes, who is suffering from anxiety, which causes problems between him and Pepper Potts. After a string of terrorist bombings perpetrated by The Mandarin (Sir Ben Kingsley), Tony awakens from his stupor and battles to free himself of the ARC chest reactor once and for all.

***Note: if you haven’t seen a Marvel movie, STAY TO THE VERY END. There is always an end tag scene.

How the weekend will stack up

We could choose our top five movies this weekend, but really the top nine are all going to be “Iron Man 3.” But, if you MUST ask for a top five for the weekend of May 3rd – May 5th, then here you are:

1. Iron Man 3

We could have directed this movie (with cocktail in one hand…) and it would be the weekend winner. Early word is that this is an excellent movie and the addition of Shane Black appears to have added a more human element to the superhero again. If you don’t see, it means you drank to much beforehand or you went to the beach.

Estimated Gross: $229 Million (Mike Reyes believes that this number will be closer to $212 million).

2. Oblivion

We think that this Tom Cruise vehicle is a really great film and people will turn to it if they can’t get into “Iron Man 3.” Still, it will get nowhere close to the number one movie with everyone buying up tickets (even the ones down in the corner of the front row) for Iron Man 3.

Estimated Gross: $9 Million

3. Pain and Gain

Again, nowhere near the top spot, thanks to Iron Man 3. We think that this movie will slip back to third place, but that’s okay. Strong numbers during the past week’s box office have made sure that the film has made back its $25 million budget. Paramount adds another win to it’s ledger; and look for them to make it a trifecta when IM3 is knocked out of the #1 spot by Star Trek: Into Darkness later this month.

Estimated Gross: $4.5 million

(Note on the projected second and third place movies – Mike things that Pain and Gain will be out Oblivion.)

4. “42”

Still summer. Still baseball. Still a pretty good movie

Estimated Gross: $2.9 million

5. The Croods

This is still the only family movie out there, so if you don’t think that taking your kids to the loud, action packed PG-13 rated Iron Man 3 is the right call, there’s this.

Estimated Gross: $2.3 million

There you have it! “Flicks to Click” have been picked; not a hard week at all… Agree/disagree with how much you think IM3 will take in between Friday and Sunday? Send us some competition in the Comments section below, or on Facebook or Twitter. We’ll check back in on Monday with the results and analysis of this past weekend’s box office.